United Arab Emirates

The Ottoman Empire (1516-1924) lost control over many of its territories in the last few decades before its collapse due to the growing influence of colonial powers. Its attempts to implement a reform plan and regain lost territory in the mid-19th century largely failed, and by World War I, the empire was in full decline. The collapse of the Ottoman Empire had a strong impact on the MENA region, as colonial powers vied for spheres of influence. It would also directly lead to the creation of the state of Israel and the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Entente proposals for the partition of Ottoman territories were settled through several wartime agreements. By the Istanbul Agreements (March–April 1915), Russia was promised Istanbul and the straits, while France was to receive a sphere of influence in Syria and Cilicia. By the Anglo-French Sykes-Picot Agreement (January 3, 1916), France would take direct control of Lebanon and indirect control of Syria, while Britain would control Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Under this agreement, Palestine was also placed under an international regime.

The early history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can be traced back to the late 19th century, with the immigration of Jews to Palestine, which, back then, had been ruled by the Ottoman Empire. The influx of Jewish immigrants seeking to establish their promised homeland subsequently led to political tensions with the indigenous Arab population. In 1897, the first Zionist Congress was held in the Swiss city of Basel, leading to the adoption of the ‘Basel Program’, which set the Zionist movement's goal as the establishment of a homeland for the Jewish people.

In the early 20th century, the Zionist movement gained momentum when the British government issued the Balfour Declaration in 1917, expressing support for the establishment of a Jewish homeland in Palestine. Following the increasing tensions between the Arab and Jewish populations, mutual attacks and acts of retaliation were carried out, including the 1920 Nebi Musa riots. In 1936, the Arab Higher Committee, led by the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, Haj Mohammed Amin Al-Husseini launched a general strike on Jewish businesses, which set staged the subsequent Arab revolt from 1936 to 1939. In 1947, the United Nations General Assembly accepted the proposed Partition Plan, which laid the foundation for the Nakba and the first Arab-Israeli War in May 1948.

The establishment of the State of Israel in 1948 was accompanied by the Nakba (Arabic: “Catastrophe”), which had a devastating impact on all aspects of Palestinian life and society. More than 750,000 Palestinians were expelled from their homeland, and 531 villages were demolished and depopulated. This period also saw numerous massacres against the Palestinian population carried out by right-wing Zionist militias, including Irgun and Lehi, most notably the 1948 Deir Yassin massacre.

Following these events, Palestinians in the Galilee, Naqab, and the Triangle were subjected to Israeli military rule until 1968, after which they became citizens of Israel, while the West Bank came under Jordanian administration and the Gaza Strip fell under Egyptian military control.

In the aftermath of World War I, the Arab states of the Gulf were weak, with faltering economies and local rulers who maintained their autonomy only with British assistance. The discovery of oil in the region changed this. Oil was first discovered in Iran in May 1908, and by 1911, the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (APOC) was producing oil there. The British discovered oil in Iraq after World War I. In 1932, Standard Oil Company of California (Socal) also discovered oil in commercial quantities in Bahrain. Socal then obtained a concession in Saudi Arabia in 1933, and by 1938, it had discovered oil in commercial quantities.

A flurry of oil exploration activity occurred in the Gulf in the 1930s, with Britain and the United States vying for oil concessions. Although the oil companies struck large oil deposits in Bahrain almost immediately, it took longer to locate commercial-sized finds in other countries. Oman, for example, was unable to export oil until 1967. The oil fields in Kuwait were developed the fastest, and by 1953, that nation had become the largest oil producer in the Gulf. Significantly, smaller fields in Qatar came onstream in commercial quantities in the 1950s, and Abu Dhabi began to export offshore oil in 1962.

During the 20th Century, North Africa experienced decades of European colonisation. Italy controlled Libya from 1911 to 1947, while Spain controlled colonies in parts of modern-day Morocco. France also controlled other parts of Morocco, as well as modern-day Tunisia and Algeria, where hundreds of thousands of French people settled. Libya finally gained independence in 1951 following Italy’s defeat in World War II. Riots and political unrest characterised the postwar era in Tunisia. Under pressure from independence leader Habib Bourguiba and other nationalists, France formally recognised Tunisian independence on March 20, 1956. Bourguiba became the new nation's first leader, and the old puppet regime was abolished in 1957 in favour of a republic. Spain relinquished most territory in 1956 and 1958, after a brief war with Moroccan insurgents. Algeria’s fight, however, was longer and even bloodier. Opposition to French colonisation erupted in 1954 in the Algerian War of Independence, leaving hundreds of thousands dead and millions more displaced. The war ended in 1962, with Algeria becoming independent.

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The Pahlavi dynasty, the former ruling dynasty of Iran, began following a coup d’état against the Qājār dynasty in 1921 and ended with Iran’s Islamic Revolution of 1979. After Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi was deposed, Mohammad Mossadeq returned to parliament in 1941. To prevent foreign interests from controlling the Iranian economy, Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadeq nationalised the oil industry. This move was met with fierce resistance, especially from the British, who owned substantial oil interests.

Set against the backdrop of the Cold War, American and British intelligence groups worried that Mossadeq's nationalist aspirations would lead to an eventual communist takeover. To avoid this, U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower approved a joint British-American operation (Operation Ajax) to overthrow Mossadeq. Following the August 1953 coup, Mossadeq was defeated, bringing Mohammed Reza Shah Pahlevi back to power. Mohammad Reza subsequently imposed aggressive economic development policies, including the modernisation program known as the White Revolution. The program, however, upended the country's traditional power structures and heightened tensions that eventually led to Mohammad Reza’s downfall in 1979.

With the exception of Saudi Arabia and Iraq, the Arab coast of the Gulf was ruled by ten families. These families owed their positions to tribal leadership. It was also on this traditional basis that the British negotiated treaties with their leaders in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. In the aftermath of World War II, however, Britain was burdened by the sacrifices it had made during the war and could not be as globally involved as it had been before.

Kuwait was the first state to terminate the agreement with Britain and to declare independence in 1961. Oil production in Kuwait had developed more quickly than in neighbouring states, and as a result, Kuwaitis were better prepared for independence. Qatar and Bahrain achieved independence from British rule in 1971, marking a crucial turning point in their histories. Prior to this, both nations were under British protectorate status, with Qatar governed by the Al Thani tribe and Bahrain by the Al Khalifa dynasty. The movement towards independence was influenced by growing nationalist sentiments, especially after World War II, when local populations became increasingly resentful of foreign control.

The Six-Day War of 1967 was a turning point in the Arab-Israeli conflict and took place frrom June 5th, until June, 10th. Escalating tensions between Israel and its neighbors, particularly Egypt, Jordan, and Syria, led Israel to launch a military strike. Within six days, Israel had achieved a decisive victory, capturing the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights. The war not only expanded Israel’s territory dramatically but also gave it strategic control over vital water resources.

The Iranian Revolution (1978-1979) arose from widespread and diverse discontent with Iran's monarchical government. Iranians from the secular left to the religious right came together to bring an end to the shah’s autocracy and Western interference in the country’s policies. The Jaleh Square Massacre took place on 8 September, when Mohammad Reza Shah's troops fired into a crowd of 20,000 pro-Khomeini protestors in Tehran. The day became known in Iran as 'Black Friday', and led to greater discontent with the government.

On 10 and 11 December, hundreds of thousands of people participated in anti-regime marches across the country, leading to violent clashes between protesters and the Shah's troops. After Mohammad Reza Shah fled Iran on 16 January, Khomeini called for a 'street referendum' on the monarchy. By Khomeini's proclamation, Mehdi Bazargan became the first prime minister of the revolutionary regime in February 1979. In his attempts to Islamise Iran, Khomeini established various institutions, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a military force loyal to the clerical leaders. On 1 April, Khomeini declared the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

After five wars over three decades, Egypt and Israel signed a peace agreement in March 1979. Cairo and Jerusalem had clear motivations to choose peace over conflict. Egypt wanted to restore its sovereignty over the Sinai Peninsula, which it lost in the 1967 Six-Day War. Israel also wanted to secure its southern border and neutralise the region’s largest and most powerful Arab country.

A second agreement, “The Framework for Peace in the Middle East called for a process through which a “self-governing authority in the West Bank and Gaza” would be elected by the inhabitants of these territories, in a process agreed upon through negotiations between Egypt, Israel, and Jordan. The Palestinian Liberation Organisation rejected the agreement, arguing that ‘accepting the five-year “transitional period” without having the future of the occupied territories specified after the five-year period bestowed legitimacy upon the occupation and gave Israel time to establish further settlements in the West Bank and Gaza.’

The Persian Gulf War (1990–91) was triggered when Iraq’s leader, Saddam Hussein, ordered the invasion and occupation of Kuwait on August 2, 1990. The apparent aims included cancelling a large debt Iraq owed Kuwait, acquiring that nation’s large oil reserves and expanding Iraqi power in the region. It was the first significant international crisis of the post-Cold War era, and the U.S.-led response would set important precedents for the use of military force over subsequent decades. Active resistance to the invasion lasted about 14 hours, during which time an estimated 4,200 Kuwaitis were killed in combat. As many as 350,000 Kuwaiti refugees also fled south into Saudi Arabia. Iraq was ultimately defeated due to a range of factors, including the overall ineffectiveness of Iraq's chemical weapons. Another factor was Iraq's strategic isolation as Saddam faced a strong U.S.-led coalition that included most major Arab powers.

The Oslo Accords are a set of agreements between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) that established a peace process for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on a two-state solution. The Oslo I Agreement of 1993 established a ‘Palestinian interim Self-Governing Authority,’ setting up a framework for the Palestinians to govern themselves in the West Bank and Gaza. In 1995, the Oslo II Agreement established the PLO-based Palestinian Authority (PA) in Gaza and Jericho.

The Oslo process faced recurring obstacles. Firstly, the assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1996 resulted in the rise of Benjamin Netanyahu, an outspoken critic of the Oslo Accords. Although the process resumed in 1998 under the new prime minister, Ehud Barak, tension had already been increasing. The Palestinians were aggrieved that they were still deprived of self-governance after the proposed timeline of five years. The Israelis were also increasingly suspicious of the PLO’s ability to prevent attacks.

On September 28, 2000, Israeli politician Ariel Sharon visited the Israeli-occupied areas of East Jerusalem, sparking the second intifada. Palestinian leaders saw this visit as Israel laying claim to the occupied territories as well as Islam's holy sites at Jerusalem's Temple Mount. Sharon’s election as Israel’s prime minister also sparked resentment, linked to the breakdown of the Camp David peace talks in July 2000. The second mass uprising saw Hamas and other jihadist groups shell Israeli towns and fight gunbattles with Israeli soldiers. In response, Israel launched airstrikes against targets in Gaza and large-scale military attacks in the occupied territories. Although the second intifada has no clearly defined end date, some observers point to the death of Yasser Arafat in November 2004 as the decisive moment. However, lethal attacks continued for months after his death.

Following 9/11, US President George W. Bush announced a global ‘War on Terror.’ The Afghanistan War consisted of three phases. The first phase involved toppling the Taliban-led government of Afghanistan, which Bush accused of hosting Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda. The second phase, from 2002 until 2008, was marked by a U.S. strategy of defeating the Taliban militarily and rebuilding core institutions of the Afghan state. The third phase, a turn to counterinsurgency, began in 2008 and accelerated with U.S. Pres. Barack Obama’s 2009 decision to temporarily increase the U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan.

Various factors ultimately contributed to the Taliban’s reconquest of Afghanistan in August 2021, following twenty years of conflict. Firstly, the international military presence, with its large number of contractors, fuelled corruption. Warlords were also politically and financially empowered. Likewise, the international intervention in Afghanistan lacked local-level ownership and accountability. This lack of accountability further undermined the belief that the newly created order was a true advocate of the rule of law and human rights.

In 2002, the new U.S. president, George W. Bush, argued that the vulnerability of the United States following the September 11 attacks of 2001, together with Iraq’s alleged continued possession and manufacture of weapons of mass destruction (an accusation that was later proved wrong), made disarming Iraq a priority.

The Iraq War, also referred to as the Second Gulf War, began in March 2003 when the United States led a coalition to invade Iraq. Despite the quick toppling of Hussein's regime, the aftermath led to an insurgency, fuelled by sectarian violence between Shia and Sunni groups as well as resistance to foreign intervention. As the conflict evolved, significant incidents, such as the Abu Ghraib scandal, fuelled public scrutiny of the war’s justification and execution. The U.S. military ultimately withdrew from Iraq in December 2011, leaving behind a nation still grappling with political and cultural challenges.

The Arab Spring resulted in a wave of pro-democracy uprisings and protests across the Middle East and North Africa from 2010 to 2011. People rose up to protest against authoritarianism, poverty and corruption, challenging some of the region’s authoritarian regimes. The initial protests in Tunisia and Egypt toppled their regimes, inspiring similar attempts in other Arab countries. The Libyan uprising turned into a civil war with French, American and British air forces intervening against Muammar Gaddafi. On October 20, 2011, Gaddafi was captured and killed in his home region of Sirte by rebels. In Syria, the torture of youths sparked mainly peaceful protests at first, and calls for democratic reform. However, the revolt escalated into a civil war due to violent government repression.

In 2019, a renewed wave of mass protests swept parts of the Arab world, driven by popular frustration with corruption, economic hardship, and maladministration. In Iraq, the October protests, known as the Tishreen Revolution, were largely led by young Iraqis opposing corruption, nepotism, and the sectarian-based Muhasasa system. Sustained demonstrations and violent repression underscored deep public disaffection and ultimately forced Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi to resign.

Similar dynamics unfolded in Algeria and Lebanon. Algeria’s Hirak movement erupted in February 2019 in response to President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s bid for a fifth term, quickly evolving into a nationwide call for systemic political reform. While the protests succeeded in removing Bouteflika, they failed to dismantle le pouvoir, the entrenched military–political elite, and faced internal debates over leadership and representation. In Lebanon, the October 17 protest, sparked by new taxes, including a proposed levy on WhatsApp calls, rapidly became the largest cross-sectarian mobilization since the civil war, forcing Prime Minister Saad Hariri to resign.

On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a large-scale attack on Israel, triggering what would become a two-year campaign of genocide against the Palestinian population in the Gaza Strip and marking the deadliest and most destructive phase of the long-standing Israeli–Palestinian conflict. By early 2025, nearly 90 percent of Gaza’s population had been displaced amid severe humanitarian crises and the widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure. A first major, albeit short-lived, ceasefire was declared on January 19, 2025, following international mediation, even as Israel continued targeting civilians in Gaza. The genocide also projected a similar peak in violence, killings, and arbitrary arrests in the West Bank.

The conflict sparked a dangerous regional escalation, particularly along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. Beginning on October 8, 2023, clashes between Israel and Hezbollah intensified. What initially began as limited cross-border exchanges escalated into sustained confrontations involving airstrikes, rocket fire, and artillery bombardments across southern Lebanon, northern Israel, and parts of Syria. This represented one of the most severe escalations in over a decade and ultimately culminated in the assassination of Hezbollah’s former secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, in Beirut on September 27, 2014.

Nationwide protests began in Iran on 28 December 2025 in response to severe economic conditions, including record inflation and currency collapse. In addition to internet shutdowns across Iran at the beginning of January, there were disruptions to mobile networks and GPS interference. Within weeks, the protests were suppressed following a brutal crackdown that began on 9 January. Thousands of protesters were killed during this protest, some of whom government officials characterised as “foreign agents” and “terrorists.”

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a joint military operation against Iran, resulting in the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. In the first days of airstrikes, the two nations also killed several top leaders of the Iranian military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

The Iran War has triggered hundreds of retaliatory missiles and thousands of drones from Iran across the region. The attacks have had a serious impact, leaving more than 2,000 people dead in Iran, Lebanon, and Israel and hundreds of thousands of people displaced in Lebanon. Iranian attacks have also targeted commercial hubs in neighbouring countries that aid the U.S. military as well as oil infrastructure in the region, including vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil passes.