Accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova reopened a debate the Union had shelved for a decade — and exposed how little its institutions are designed for thirty-plus members.
For most of the 2010s, enlargement was the European Union's dormant policy. The
full-scale invasion of Ukraine revived it within months, turning what had been a
technical process into the Union's central strategic question.
Three candidates, three problems
Ukraine brings the strongest political case and the hardest practical one: a
large agricultural sector, wartime institutions, and territory under occupation.
Moldova is small enough to absorb but carries an unresolved separatist region
and deep energy dependence.
Georgia illustrates that candidate status is reversible in practice: the
governing party's legislative turn has effectively frozen the process.
The internal arithmetic
Accession changes the maths of every existing policy. Cohesion funds and the
common agricultural policy would both need restructuring; qualified-majority
voting becomes unavoidable if unanimity is not to produce permanent deadlock.
Enlargement is therefore, for current members, primarily a debate about
themselves.
