Though there is much conflicting and often unreliable data on how many years of peace there have been in recorded history, the evidence points to very few. Since 1946, the overall number of conflicts has risen, while the overall deaths from conflicts have<span class="span"><span id=hint class="box-source">declined markedly.</span><div class="popover">Source:<br><br><div>Roser, M. et al. War and Peace. Our World in Data.</div></div></span>This is because the majority of these conflicts have been civil conflicts within states rather than war between states.
Steven Pinker’s influential book The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined (2011) presents a lot of data showing significant declines in all forms of violence over time and within countries. Despite this, he argues, our overall perceptions of violence do not reflect this decline, partly perhaps because modern communications fill our screens with seemingly endless examples of violence globally. Pinker’s analysis has led to much divided opinion. An early challenge came from Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Taleb who<span class="span"><span id=hint class="box-source">strongly criticized</span><div class="popover">Source:<br><br><div>Cirillo, P. and Taleb, N. The Decline of Violent Conflicts: What Do the Data Really Say?. The Nobel Foundation, 2016.</div></div></span>the data and analysis. “…Pinker’s severe mistake”, they wrote, “is one of standard naïve empiricism – basically mistaking data (actually the absence of data) for evidence and building his theory of why violence has dropped without even ascertaining whether violence did indeed drop”.
Liddell Hart’s idea of a “more perfect peace” has proven to be an elusive goal. In 1919, in a speech at Verdun, the French Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau said, “It is easier to make war than peace.” Clemenceau was one of the principal architects at the Paris Peace Conference after World War One.
Efforts to Prevent War
In the long history of warfare, the idea that peace could and should be achieved through political means has only been established within the past 200 or so years. Even leading up to 1914, war was seen as a normal and acceptable way of settling international differences.
Following perceptions of wasteful slaughter during the First World War, a key aim of the Paris Peace Conference of 1919 was to prevent such a war occurring again. According to the British diplomat<span class="span"><span id=hint class="box-source">Harold Nicholson</span><div class="popover">Source:<br><br><div>Nicolson, H. G. Peacemaking 1919. Faber and Faber, 2013.</div></div></span>, “We were journeying to Paris, not merely to liquidate the war, but to found a new order in Europe. We were preparing not Peace only, but Eternal Peace”.
Michael Howard<span class="span"><span id=hint class="box-source">argued</span><div class="popover">Source:<br><br><div>Howard, M. The Invention of Peace: Reflections on War and International Order. Yale University Press, 2001.</div></div></span>that peace had to be invented, unlike war. “Peace”, he wrote, “is not an order natural to mankind: it is artificial, intricate and highly volatile”. Following the Napoleonic Wars (1793–1814), peace movements were established in the US and UK. The London Peace Society was formed in 1816 to promote permanent, universal peace. The Society convened the first International Peace Congress in London in 1843. In the mid-1850s, William Cobden, British politician and advocate of free trade, focused his energies on campaigning for peace. He believed strongly that free trade was a powerful force for establishing peace and preventing war.
In 1889, the Austrian novelist Bertha von Suttner published an anti-war novel called Lay Down Your Arms. Though both author and book are now largely forgotten, Suttner won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1905 and, according to<span class="span"><span id=hint class="box-source">Samuel Moyn</span><div class="popover">Source:<br><br><div>Moyn, S. Humane: How the United States Abandoned Peace and Reinvented War. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2021.</div></div></span>, “Before World War 1, no document of Western civilization did more to …[argue] for an end to endless war into a mainstream cause”. In Europe, the peace movement was further energized by Norman Angell’s The Great Illusion (1909), which sold millions of copies and was translated into 25 languages. According to Angell, the economic costs of war far outweighed the benefits and, thus, a European war was unlikely to start. Angell also won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1933. Living through two world wars, he lost much of his earlier idealism, coming to see the benefits of collective security for maintaining peace and supporting the establishment of NATO in 1949.
The Kellogg–Briand Pact: An Attempt to Outlaw War
Almost 10 years after the conference to end all wars, an attempt was made in 1928 to outlaw war in a treaty signed by 15 nations that came to be known as the Kellogg–Briand Pact. Within a year, most states in the world had signed up, renouncing their right to go to war. In 1935, Italy invaded Ethiopia and, in 1939, Germany invaded Poland, triggering the Second World War. One interpretation of these events is that it is impossible, perhaps even foolish, to attempt to ban war legally.
As argued in The Internationalists And Their Plan to Outlaw War by Oona Hathaway and Scott Shapiro (2017), another interpretation is that the Kellogg–Briand Pact led to gradual but influential changes in international law, which significantly reduced interstate war. A major step was Article 2(4) of the UN Charter (October 1945), which prohibits states from resorting to the “threat or use of force” against another state. According to Hathaway and Shapiro, there have also been other developments, including the revolution in human rights. The book ends with a quote from Briand in 1928: “Peace is proclaimed: that is well, that is much. But it still remains necessary to organize it… That is to be the work of tomorrow”.
That work has still to be done. Moyn<span class="span"><span id=hint class="box-source">argues</span><div class="popover">Source:<br><br><div>Moyn, S. Humane: How the United States Abandoned Peace and Reinvented War. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2021.</div></div></span>in his book that the attempts to make war more humane through international law and more distant, such as through drone strikes, have helped to weaken the peace movement. As a result, today we live in an age of ‘forever wars’, which do not directly impact on the lives of most citizens of the attacking states, but lead to the continuing export of death and destruction.